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Travel Demand Forecasting

Overview

The region’s travel demand forecasting (TDF) model is used to predict how travel patterns will change in the future and what mode (transit or automobile) will be used to complete these trips in Hampton Roads.  The TDF model is used in a variety of ways:  air quality conformity, analysis of candidates for the Regional Transportation Plan, support for the Congestion Management System, individual project studies, and as-needed data requests. 

The Virginia Department of Transportation and their consultant completed a validation of the Hampton Roads model in the summer of 2004. This was done to better replicate existing travel conditions by adjusting model parameters.  These improvements will result in more accurate forecasts.

Reports and information relevant to the Hampton Roads travel demand forecasting model:

Socioeconomic Data

  • Hampton Roads 2000 Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ) Maps(T01-07) (zip file)

  • Hampton Roads 2000 and 2030 Socioeconomic Data by TAZ(T04-13) (PDF) (Excel File, here)

2000 Model Validation

  • 2000 Hampton Roads Model User’s Guide (PDF)

  • 2000 Hampton Roads Model Validation Memorandum (PDF)

  • Summary presentation of 2000 Hampton Roads Model Validation (PDF)

Highway Networks 

(These may not be the latest networks as they are continually getting updated, but this will provide an idea of the roads included in the model.Viper software is needed to view these unloaded highway networks.)

Software Used-TP+ and Viper 

[Software available from Citilabs (www.citilabs.com)]

Basic Model Information

  • Most recent model validation year:  2000
  • Most recent forecast year:  2030
  • Model covers MPO study area boundary
    • Chesapeake, Isle of Wight Co., Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Gloucester Co. (area in MPO), Hampton, James City Co., Newport News, Poquoson, Williamsburg, York Co.

  • Land area covered by model:  1,197,631 acres
  • Number of zones:  1,084 total (1,059 internal and 25 external)
  • Number of links:  about 7,000 covering about 3,000 center-line miles of road
  • Coordinate units in Viper: meters

  • Development of model for Hampton Roads Crossing Study (PDF)

Shape Files

  • Zipped file of roads, locality boundaries, and TAZ's (2000 and 2030 socioeconomic data included).  Files are modified from Census 2000 TIGER files.

Other relevant links

Travel demand forecasting model questions:

Andy Pickard at HRPDC (apickard@hrpdcva.gov)

Jeremy Raw at VDOT (jeremy.raw@vdot.virginia.gov)(Contact for obtaining a copy of the model.)

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